Multimedia Forensics experts work consists in providing answers about integrity of a specific media content and from where it comes from. Exploitation of any traces from JPEG double compressed images is often one of the main investigative path to be used for these purposes. Thus it is fundamental to have tools and algorithms able to safely estimate the first quantization matrix to further proceed with camera model identification and related tasks. In this paper, a technique based on extensive simulation is proposed, with the aim to infer the first quantization for a certain numbers of Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) coefficients exploiting local image statistics without using any a-priori knowledge. The method provides also a reliable confidence value for the estimation which is of great importance for forensic purposes. Experimental results w.r.t. the state-of-the-art demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique both in terms of precision and overall reliability.